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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-09-18T04:30Z
CME Note: Geomagnetic activity is likely due to the mix with a coronal hole high speed stream
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-20T05:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -75
Dst min. time: 2015-09-20T16:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-09-21T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-09-18T11:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 750
Longitude (deg): W27
Latitude (deg): S60
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: Possible glancing blow late 20th/early 21st.
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 23.20 hour(s)
Difference: -27.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-09-19T06:15Z

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